Global demand for cooling is set to triple by 2050, driving greenhouse gas emissions to 7.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, even with efficiency gains and refrigerant phase-down efforts, according to the United Nations Environment Programme’s latest report.

The “Global Cooling Watch 2025” warns that the surge in cooling needs, fueled by rising incomes, urbanization and extreme heat, could push electricity systems to breaking point unless the world adopts sustainable, passive-first cooling solutions.

UNEP’s analysis finds that refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment emitted 4.1 billion tons of CO₂ equivalent in 2022, roughly one-third from refrigerant leakage and two-thirds from energy use.

Without urgent reform, cooling-related emissions will almost double, worsening climate impacts while leaving billions without protection from extreme heat.

A Sustainable Cooling Pathway

The report lays out a “Sustainable Cooling Pathway” that could cut cooling emissions by 64 percent — down to 2.6 billion tons by mid-century — through passive cooling, efficient hybrid systems and rapid phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons.

When paired with rapid decarbonization of power grids, emissions could drop 97 percent from business-as-usual levels, leaving only 0.2 billion tons of residual emissions.

These measures, UNEP estimates, could save up to $43 trillion in cumulative energy and grid infrastructure costs by 2050 while expanding access to cooling for 3 billion more people.

“Cooling is not just a comfort—it’s a survival issue,” said Winston Chow, co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II, in the foreword. “We must reimagine cooling as a cornerstone of heat resilience and sustainable development.”

Cooling Access and Equity Gaps

Despite the proliferation of air conditioners, nearly 3 billion people may still lack access to adequate cooling by mid-century, leaving them vulnerable to heat stress and food insecurity.

Low-income and marginalized communities, especially women, are expected to bear the brunt of this inequity, the report notes.

UNEP modeling shows that low- and middle-income countries in Africa and South-Central Asia will see the sharpest growth in cooling demand. At the same time, Europe faces the fastest relative increase as formerly temperate regions endure hotter summers.

Policy Momentum and Gaps

Analysis of 192 countries reveals growing policy attention but wide disparities in action. While 134 nations have integrated cooling into national climate and energy plans, only 54 have adopted the full suite of policies aligned with the Sustainable Cooling Pathway: passive design in building codes, minimum energy performance standards and rapid refrigerant transition.

“Policy momentum is strong but uneven,” UNEP said, noting that many developing nations still lack regulatory frameworks to enforce building energy codes.

Only 19 countries mandate shading features in residential designs despite evidence that passive measures can lower indoor temperatures by 2.2 degrees Celsius and reduce energy use by nearly 30 percent.

Urban Cooling and Infrastructure Resilience

The report highlights how heatwaves and urban heat islands exacerbate power demand and grid instability. Cities such as Buenos Aires and parts of Southeast Europe have experienced blackouts triggered by surging cooling loads.

Integrating passive cooling through reflective surfaces, green corridors and natural ventilation an reduce heat stress, lower peak electricity demand and make urban spaces more livable.

UNEP urges governments to prioritize these measures alongside low-energy cooling technologies such as efficient fans, evaporative coolers and hybrid air-conditioning systems.

Economic and Social Returns

By adopting sustainable cooling solutions, the world could save $1.3 trillion annually in electricity costs by 2050, with cumulative savings of $17 trillion between 2025 and 2050.

Peak load reductions of up to 10 terawatts could avoid another $26 trillion in power infrastructure investments.

Passive cooling solutions also promise immediate benefits. External shading can pay for itself in as little as two years, while green roofs and advanced insulation can slash energy bills over time.

Strategic combinations of passive interventions can cool buildings by up to 9°C, potentially eliminating the need for mechanical air conditioning in many tropical regions.

The Frameworks for Change

UNEP introduces two key frameworks to guide nations:

  • The Sustainable Cooling Hierarchy: A four-step model prioritizing passive design, low-energy systems, energy-efficient technologies and rapid HFC phase-down.
  • The Tiered Access to Sustainable Cooling Framework: A new approach to ensure equitable access, defining six levels from no access to full sustainable access.

Together, they aim to balance climate mitigation with adaptation, ensuring that cooling expansion aligns with emission reduction goals.

A Call for Coordinated Governance

The report stresses that current governance of heat and cooling is fragmented—often split between disaster management and energy ministries.

It calls for integrated national heat plans that treat cooling as essential infrastructure, alongside water, sanitation and electricity.

UNEP’s “Beat the Heat” initiative, developed with Brazil as COP30 host, seeks to close this policy and finance gap by coordinating local and national responses.

It urges countries to embed passive-first cooling in urban planning, expand nature-based solutions and strengthen public procurement for efficient technologies.

From Survival to Resilience

Extreme heat already causes nearly half a million deaths annually and disrupts economies, health care and food systems. UNEP’s message is clear: societies cannot air-condition their way out of the climate crisis.

Sustainable cooling, the report concludes, “is fundamental to achieving global adaptation and mitigation goals.” Governments and industries must work together to ensure that every measure to cut emissions also protects those most at risk from heat.

If successful, UNEP says, the Sustainable Cooling Pathway could redefine cooling as a force for resilience — protecting lives, livelihoods and the planet itself.

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Nirmal Menon

Nirmal Menon is a journalist with more than 20 years of experience covering business and technology for mainstream publications in India and abroad. In his previous role, he served as business desk editor at Arab News. He is currently the editor of ESG Times. He can be reached at nirmal.menon@esgtimes.in.