The planet is warming faster than expected, and natural systems that once buffered the climate are beginning to fail, according to a new scientific report released on the eve of the United Nations climate negotiations in Brazil.
The “10 New Insights in Climate Science 2025/2026” report, produced by Future Earth, The Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme, warns that “global warming may be accelerating” and that the world is edging closer to breaching the Paris Agreement target of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Researchers said the findings show an urgent need for governments to strengthen emission reduction plans, accelerate adaptation efforts and rebuild trust in science-based policy.
Record Heat Signals Possible Acceleration
The report said that 2024 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures reaching 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
It cited an “elevated Earth energy imbalance” — the difference between heat absorbed by the planet and that radiated back into space — as a possible sign of accelerating global warming.
The authors attributed the temperature surge partly to the shift from La Niña to El Niño conditions, but said natural variability alone cannot explain the unprecedented scale and persistence of recent heat.
“This evidence suggests the pace of global warming may be quickening,” the report said, noting that reduced reflection of sunlight due to declining aerosols and melting ice has intensified the planet’s heat absorption.
Oceans Show Signs of Severe Stress
Global mean sea surface temperatures broke records for 13 consecutive months from April 2023 to June 2024, the report found.
Rapid ocean warming and intensifying marine heatwaves have eroded marine ecosystems and weakened the ocean’s role as a carbon sink.
“Marine heatwaves are lasting longer and becoming more severe, with devastating effects on biodiversity and coastal livelihoods,” the authors said.
The ocean’s reduced capacity to absorb carbon dioxide also means more emissions remain in the atmosphere, compounding global warming.
The report urged governments to include ocean-based targets in national adaptation plans and to expand early warning systems for marine heatwaves, particularly in developing coastal nations.
Land Carbon Sinks Under Strain
Terrestrial ecosystems that have long absorbed large amounts of carbon are also under growing strain. According to the report, the global land carbon sink dropped sharply in 2023 as record heat and wildfires swept across continents.
Wildfires in Canada’s boreal forests released an estimated 0.65 gigatonnes of carbon, nearly equal to the European Union’s annual fossil fuel emissions. Similar stress is evident in northern ecosystems once considered stable.
“If these natural carbon sinks continue to weaken, the world’s remaining carbon budget will shrink faster than expected,” the report warned.
It called for permafrost emissions to be included in national climate accounting and said soil and forest management must prioritize ecosystem resilience to curb further climate change.
Biodiversity Loss Feeds Climate Feedback
The report highlighted that biodiversity loss and global warming now reinforce each other in a destabilizing cycle. Diminishing plant and animal diversity reduces ecosystems’ capacity to store carbon, accelerating climate change and further damaging natural habitats.
Studies cited in the report estimate that projected global plant species loss could lead to up to 146 gigatonnes of additional carbon emissions in the coming decades.
“Protecting biodiversity is not just a conservation goal but a climate imperative,” the authors wrote. They urged closer coordination between the U.N. conventions on climate, biodiversity and desertification to avoid fragmented action and to maximize co-benefits from ecosystem restoration.
Water, Health and Labor Threats Rising
Climate change is also disrupting water security and human well-being. The report found that global groundwater depletion is accelerating, especially in key agricultural regions, threatening food production and livelihoods.
Groundwater levels are declining fastest in drylands where rainfall has decreased and irrigation demand is soaring. “Groundwater is being used as a short-term buffer against drought, but this approach is not sustainable,” the report said.
Health systems face new challenges as warming temperatures expand the range of disease-carrying mosquitoes.
The World Health Organization recorded 14.2 million dengue cases in 2024, the largest outbreak on record. The report links up to 40 percent of dengue cases in some countries to climate-driven factors.
Heat stress is another growing threat. Rising global temperatures are expected to reduce working hours and income, with the heaviest losses projected in tropical and low-income regions. Economic losses, the authors said, will ripple through supply chains and international trade.
Integrity of Carbon Markets Questioned
The report said that scaling up carbon dioxide removal is “essential but must be done responsibly,” focusing on hard-to-abate sectors rather than offsetting continued fossil fuel use.
It called for the development of global standards to govern CDR deployment and ensure environmental and social safeguards. “CDR should complement, not substitute, rapid emissions cuts,” the report said.
The authors also raised concerns about the integrity of voluntary carbon markets, warning that “systemic flaws” such as overstated carbon sequestration claims risk undermining global mitigation efforts. However, they noted emerging reforms toward stronger benchmarks and transparency.
“High-integrity markets are possible,” the report said, “but they must be grounded in rigorous measurement, reporting and verification.”
Policy Mixes Outperform Single Measures
A key takeaway from the report is that combined policy packages outperform single measures in driving lasting emissions cuts.
“Carefully designed policy mixes, especially those including carbon pricing and reduced fossil fuel subsidies, achieve deeper reductions,” the authors said. They recommended tailoring policies to national contexts while maintaining global coordination and transparent reporting.
More than 70 researchers from over 20 countries contributed to this year’s 10 New Insights report, with input from more than 150 experts worldwide.
“The science is unequivocal,” the report said. “Without stronger and faster action, the risks to ecosystems, economies and societies will intensify sharply.”
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