The once war-ravaged Manas National Park in Assam has made a dramatic ecological recovery, with populations of tigers, elephants, rhinos and other endangered species rebounding sharply after decades of civil unrest, a new study has found.
Manas National Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site situated on the Indo-Bhutan border, experienced a rise in its tiger population at an average annual rate of 17 percent, reaching 57 adult individuals, including over 20 breeding females, by 2023.
According to the study, this development positions the park as a key source population for the broader transboundary Manas-Dooars landscape.
Elephants were the most abundant species, with a density of 9.14 animals per square kilometer — one of the highest recorded anywhere.
“Our results show that if law enforcement and ecological management are restored, even severely degraded ecosystems can bounce back,” said lead author Vaibhav Chandra Mathur, a conservation biologist at the National Tiger Conservation Authority and Manas Tiger Reserve.
Civil Unrest Led to Wildlife Collapse
From the late 1980s until the early 2000s, Manas suffered extensive damage due to insurgent activity. Over 40 percent of its primary forest was lost to agriculture and settlement.
Key wildlife populations, including the greater one-horned rhinoceros and male elephants, were wiped out by poaching.
“Manas was written off as a failed park,” Mathur said. “It had no rhinos, very few elephants, and almost no tiger sightings for years.”
Since the conflict subsided in 2003 and full restoration of governance was achieved in all areas by 2020, conservation efforts have included species reintroduction, habitat protection, and digital monitoring using tools such as the Monitoring System for Tigers: Intensive Protection and Ecological Status app.
The rhinoceros and eastern swamp deer, reintroduced in 2008 and 2014, respectively, are now growing at a rate of 17 percent annually. Wild buffalo, gaur, and sambar populations have stabilized.
“This study offers the most robust population estimates for elephants and tigers in Manas to date,” Mathur said. “It shows the power of targeted recovery programs, community involvement, and science-led monitoring.”
Prey Species Decline Triggers Concern
Despite the successes, researchers found sharp declines in hog deer and wild pig populations — down 82 percent and 67 percent, respectively, since 2015.
“These prey species are critical for predator survival,” Mathur said. “If hog deer continue to decline, we risk pushing them into what’s called a ‘predator pit,’ where they can’t recover even with good habitat.”
He called for immediate translocation and population reinforcement, along with anti-poaching action targeting bushmeat hunting.
Leopard density remained stable at 4.77 per 100 square kilometers; however, the study noted a decrease in detections of elusive carnivores, such as the clouded leopard and Asiatic wild dog.
The authors urged a shift away from traditional block counts. They advocated for elephant-back line transects to accurately estimate the populations of large prey and herbivores, especially in floodplain grassland ecosystems.
“This approach can be scaled up to other reserves across the eastern Himalayas and northeast India,” Mathur said. “Manas is now a replicable model of how to monitor and restore biodiversity after conflict.”
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