Rising global temperatures are making obstructive sleep apnea, or OSA, more severe and more prevalent, according to a large international study presented at the ATS 2025 International Conference in San Francisco on Sunday.

Researchers said the findings suggest the burden of the common sleep disorder, marked by disrupted breathing during sleep, could double worldwide over the next 75 years under the most likely climate change scenarios.

“This study really highlights the societal burden associated with the increase in OSA prevalence due to rising temperatures,” said Bastien Lechat, Ph.D., senior research fellow at FHMRI: Sleep Health at Flinders University.

Researchers analyzed data from more than 116,000 users of a validated under-mattress sensor used to track OSA severity.

The dataset included approximately 500 repeated measurements per user, matched with localized 24-hour ambient temperature data from global climate models.

The study found that warmer temperatures increased the likelihood of a person experiencing OSA on a given night by 45 percent. The temperature impact was particularly pronounced in European countries compared to Australia and the United States.

“We were surprised by the magnitude of the association between ambient temperature and OSA severity,” Lechat said.

Heat-Driven Health Burden Could Double by 2100

To assess the societal toll, researchers modeled the future burden of OSA, incorporating metrics such as disability-adjusted life years, productivity losses and healthcare costs.

The analysis projected that a rise in global temperatures of 2 degrees Celsius or more would result in a 1.5- to 3-fold increase in the OSA burden by 2100.

The team also estimated that climate change has contributed to a 50 percent to 100 percent increase in OSA burden since 2000.

Researchers said the study highlights the broader health implications of global warming and the urgency of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

“The high prevalence of undiagnosed and untreated OSA amplifies the effect of global warming,” Lechat added. “Improving diagnosis and treatment is likely to reduce the health and economic costs associated with rising temperatures.”

The researchers now plan to develop interventions aimed at reducing temperature-related impacts on OSA and to further investigate the physiological mechanisms linking the disorder to environmental heat.

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