A decade after the Paris Agreement, wealthy nations have created an emissions shortfall of more than 88 billion metric tons of CO₂-equivalent, putting the world on course to blast past the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, according to a major civil society review released Wednesday.
The report says this deficit is almost as large as the Global North’s entire fair-share requirement for the period and signals a “catastrophic failure” of the international climate regime.
The “2025 Civil Society Equity Review,” endorsed by hundreds of groups worldwide, argues that the crisis is driven less by a lack of technology than by “systemic pathologies” rooted in extreme inequality, historical injustice, and entrenched fossil fuel power.
These structural forces, the report says, continue to shape global climate action and have blocked meaningful progress since 2015.
Although countries accepted a legal obligation to pursue the 1.5°C limit, current policies are steering the world “far beyond” that target.
The report notes that climate impacts are already hitting the poorest communities hardest, especially in the Global South. These impacts have widened economic fragility and deepened the sense that global cooperation promises have been broken.
Yet the report stresses that the crisis is not inevitable. Instead, it argues that a just transition remains possible if nations commit to equity-aligned emissions cuts, large-scale public finance, and a restructuring of global governance systems that now protect fossil fuel interests.
Global North Responsible for Majority of Shortfall
The report’s analysis shows that the United States, the European Union, Japan and Australia have delivered only modest emissions reductions since 2015. These reductions fall far short of what fair-share calculations require.
Under those benchmarks, wealthy nations should have approached net-zero emissions before 2030 while providing major volumes of climate finance. However, none are close to this trajectory.
The U.S. stands out as the worst performer. It is responsible for half of the G7’s total shortfall, or more than 36 billion metric tons of CO₂-equivalent over the decade.
The European Union falls next, with a 24 billion metric ton gap, despite delivering faster per-capita reductions than some peers. Japan and Australia also show large deficits relative to their historical responsibility and economic capacity.
The report concludes that all Global North countries must at least double, and possibly triple, their stated 2035 mitigation pledges if they hope to meet the lower end of their fair-share obligations.
Climate Finance Failure Deepens Inequities
While mitigation gaps are severe, climate finance failures may be even more damaging. Wealthy nations promised $100 billion per year by 2020 but did not meet that pledge until 2022, according to the report.
Even then, loans, many of them non-concessional, made up two-thirds of the total, worsening debt in the Global South.
Oxfam estimates the true climate-specific assistance at only $28 billion to 35 billion in 2022, or roughly a third of what donors reported. The report warns that public finance remains far below the trillions in grants required for a global just transition.
Key UN climate funds also show gaps. The Green Climate Fund’s latest replenishment secured $9.64 billion, slightly lower than the previous round.
The new Loss and Damage Fund has so far received $788 million in pledges, with less than half delivered and none disbursed to affected communities.
These failures, the review argues, have dented trust and restricted the Global South’s capacity to plan deeper emissions cuts, phase out fossil fuels and build resilience.
Global South Closer to Fair Shares Despite Rising Risks
The report finds that most Global South countries have performed near their fair shares since 2015. India has exceeded its fair-share mitigation by 2.5 billion metric tons, while Kenya, South Africa, China and several others are close to meeting theirs. Indonesia and Gulf exporters such as the UAE are exceptions, as both fall short.
However, the review stresses that meeting fair shares is not enough. Because the remaining carbon budget is tiny, all countries must plan for real-zero emissions. Many Global South countries cannot do so without reliable public finance from the Global North.
Despite this constraint, a few Global South NDCs already exceed fair-share benchmarks. The Marshall Islands’ target stands out as the most ambitious.
Kenya, Bangladesh, China, and South Africa have also tabled pledges that fall within or near their fair-share ranges.
Fossil Fuel Expansion Undercuts Climate Action
The report warns that fossil fuel expansion is accelerating despite global commitments to phase down production.
The U.S., Canada, Norway and Australia account for nearly 70 percent of planned new oil and gas expansion between 2025 and 2035. The U.S. alone drives more than 58 percent of this growth.
At the same time, fossil fuel lobbyists continue to form some of the largest delegations at UN climate negotiations. The report argues that fossil fuel interests have “captured” policymaking and used misinformation and fear to block phase-out efforts.
Countries had agreed at COP28 to “transition away from fossil fuels,” but few have translated this into law. No major Global North country has set a firm phase-out date, and none have written such a commitment into their NDCs.
Need for Systemic Transformation
The review concludes that incremental action is no longer viable. Instead, it calls for transforming political and economic systems that now reinforce global inequality and delay cooperation.
The authors say this shift must include wealth taxation, democratic control of national economies and a restructuring of global financial governance.
Without such changes, the report warns, the world risks “devolution into climate chaos” and a future defined by growing authoritarianism and social fracture. With them, however, a fair and sustainable global order remains achievable.
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